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Crystal Ball Finance Playing The Housing market Bubble



C


hances are that in many of      cashing in on whatever            
your recent conversations       real-estate they own (if they own 
with friends and co-workers     any) and are renting, waiting for 
regarding real estate prices, the     the day they can laugh at those   
word “bubble” has been used.          who held onto their overpriced    
With the affordability of houses      abodes. Waiting for the          
blown out of the stratosphere         softening of the housing markets, 
(especially in metropolitan           they are accumulating cash and    
markets), scores of people are        counting on the forecasts of      
trying to stockpile cash in order     housing market prices by Wall     
to prepare for the next housing       Street pundits to ring true.      
crash.                                                                  
                                      With housing sales already        
While almost all Americans are        slowing down, bubble-campers are  
convinced of the inevitable           already beginning to pat          
impending fall of housing prices,     themselves on the back. Even     
how do you know when to pull the      builder Toll Brothers has         
trigger? What if you buy at a         announced officially that sales   
depressed price and the prices        are expected to decline           
continue to fall? This article       substantially this year. In the  
will present a few issues to          hottest real estate markets       
consider when playing the housing     across the nation, foreclosures   
bubble. An informed buyer is a       and delinquent payments have      
good buyer.                           arisen dramatically.             
                                                                        
The population of bubble-campers,     This makes a housing crash        
those who are ready to pounce on      inevitable right? Not             
the real-estate market once the       necessarily. With professional   
bubble pricks, is steadily            investors and other               
increasing. These people are         bubble-campers on the sidelines,  



these newly available properties      percentage decline was really a   
could see their prices supported.     bit below 34%.                    
Professionals search for                                               
cash-flow opportunities and,          Another encouraging factor for    
since housing prices have already     bubble-campers is that current    
depressed this year, could find       housing prices are not declining  
today’s prices a good deal.           sharply due to sellers holding    
Entry of professional investors       steady. Since sales volume has   
is bad for bubble-campers;            decreased dramatically and prices 
widespread purchase of property       have decreased only slightly,     
will act as a tourniquet to the       many brokerages, forecasters and  
continued downfall of housing         analysts believe that buyers are  
prices. Bubble-campers who           negotiating more but sellers are  
follow what professionals are         refusing to settle. This causes  
doing and are sick of renting         houses to stay on the market      
will also recognize this and          longer. Since this refusal to    
could follow suit.                    sell is unsustainable, we will    
                                      likely see sellers begin revising 
On the bubble-campers side,           their prices downward en masse.   
however, history has proven that                                        
inflated housing markets do           Obviously, timing the market is   
usually come down to earth. Take     almost impossible. Short-term    
Los Angeles for example. The         market timing can cause           
last decade (1996-2006) has seen      bubble-campers to get burned by   
tremendous growth in the housing      housing price fluctuations. If a 
market. This has not always been     buyer holds long-term, however,   
so; an average house purchased in     he will find that long-term       
Los Angeles dropped, in nominal       prices smooth out any dramatic    
terms, 21% between 1990 and 1996.     price shifts. Real estate        
Factoring in inflation, the          pundits forecast housing prices   



to go down, but nobody really         the subject and hopefully when it 
knows the real-estate price magic     comes time to pull the trigger    
sauce; it is dependent on             and buy real-estate, they will be 
behavioral finance, behavioral        more informed and make a more     
psychology, and macroeconomic         knowledgeable and financially     
policy. The most anybody can do      sound decision.                   
is to read as much as possible on     

                              




About the Author:

Professor J is an editor at Roomapes.com , which features roommate listings and reviews.


Read more articles by: Professor J

Article Source: www.iSnare.com


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    Crystal Ball Finance Playing The Housing market Bubble